Tuesday, March 18, 2008

My Guess on the Next Big Thing in Offense

The absolute blow-up of Spread Option football has become EXTREMELY evident over the past 5 years or so. The Godfathers being of course the Urban Meyer's and the Rich Rodriquez's. They have started an offensive revolution that will probably continue to live on at the high school level for a LONG time, and at the College level for at least some time. The typical set is a 4 wide 1 back set out of the gun, and the base play behind it all is the option. It could be the zone read with the QB eying the defensive end, or it may be the speed option with the back or even (what i think is an incredible concept) . . . a motioned wide receiver. So yes some of us or even most of us if your an enthusiast understand and have heard of or seen the Floridas and the West Virginias run this system on TV, and we have even heard of or seen it trickle down to the grass roots at the high school level.

However, I wonder whats next. Just because i like to be on top of things, and because I would like to think I'm a student of the game.

I honestly believe that 2 things are part of the equation.
1) LITTLE is truly "revolutionized" any more, the shotgun, the option, the spread formation, all these things were coined and well understood well before my time even, and the coaches themselves who are made to be the Geniuses behind these schemes readily admit that little in the light of new concepts is really being brought into offensive thought and strategy. the entire spread option scheme is based off of older ideas and principles, the wide receiver motion setting up the pitch, refer back to the Navy flexbone, the speed option, obviously just the option run at a deeper depth than usual yet AGAIN an ingenious idea in my opinion, the zone read is based off of the option principle that a single defender cannot defend 2 men and that he must PICK one giving the offense an advantage as well as being able to use one less blocker

I also believe that
2) The Next Big Thing that becomes an Offensive fad will simply be some sort of reproduction of an original offensive thought. That is to say that its going to be something you have HEARD OF BEFORE. The spread option was amazing and unprecedented in that, it gave offenses a way to RUN THE FOOTBALL very effectively out of PASSING formations, that was an unheard of concept and I think it was more than anything a SOLUTION to the problem of unbalanced offensive production (concerning predictability and the run vs pass ratio out of the shotgun).

So I'll get to the point.

The Next Big Thing in football will not be a revert to the stone age of power football, but rather it will be the final frontier of the SPREAD OFFENSE that has been left (at major levels) highly unexplored. When I say Spread offense i do mean to differentiate between all the zoning and running and optioning that can be done out of Meyer's and Rich's system. I am talking about the concept or the idea of spreading the field which has been a blossoming idea in football for the longest time now.

The unexplored frontier that i mentioned is the Empty Set.

The 5 wide receiver set employed by New England and Green Bay in 2007 to me has just GOT to be the next big thing. Not just because the Pro's are doing it, but rather because like I said it is the unexplored plateau. It is to many coaches a gimmick, a gadget, or a special set that they only go to occasionally. To some it is a mainstay but that number is probably fewer than all the I formation, West Coast split back, Pro Single back, Spread Option teams out there. I think that it is a remarkable SYSTEM in itself if you commit to it, and i say that solely because of the possibilities and defensive mismatches it presents. Given you cannot run it someone who doesn't have a head for system, but you cant put a power football QB in a West Coast system either. Obviously its all about finding the right guy, but once you have a smart coach who knows the system and how to take advantage of the FEW situations that you encounter in a 5 wide set, and then you get a QB who is merely an EXTENSION of that coach's mind on the field, I have got to imagine that this is the next big thing because i believe it has the substance to be a base offense in itself.

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